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China's first-quarter economic data today showed that GDP growth may have bounced back to double digits

On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is scheduled to release blockbuster economic data, including first-quarter GDP.It is now widely expected that GDP growth in the first quarter will pick up sharply from a low base last year, possibly to double digits.

Influenced by the epidemic, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 showed negative growth, down 6.8% year on year.Since then, the Chinese economy has been the first among the world's major economies to return to positive growth, with annual growth of 2.3 percent in 2020.What the outside world is interested in is how China's economy will grow in the first quarter of 2021, the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan.Can you get off to a good start?Liu Aihua, spokeswoman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said on March 15 that last year's drop was from a low base of 6.8%. In terms of year-on-year growth, the first quarter is likely to see year-on-year growth, or even a sharp rebound.The reporter noted that in the first two months of this year, major indicators of China's economy showed impressive performance, with consumption, investment and import and export all growing by over 30% year on year.Market institutions are now widely expecting double-digit GDP growth in the first quarter.According to a report released by the Research Institute of the Bank of China in April, the Chinese government effectively coordinated the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development in the first quarter, and the overall economy continued the steady recovery since the second quarter of 2020. GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be around 16.7%.Chang Shu, Bloomberg's chief Asia economist, and Tianshi Qu, Bloomberg's chief Asia economist, wrote that China's economy is expected to grow 20.1 percent in the first quarter.

Some economic indicators released earlier have confirmed the momentum of sustained and steady recovery of the Chinese economy.From the import and export point of view, foreign trade in the first quarter to achieve a "good start".According to customs statistics, the total value of imports and exports of goods in the first quarter was 8.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period last year.Exports accounted for 4.61 trillion yuan, up 38.7%;Imports were 3.86 trillion yuan, up 19.3%;The trade surplus was 759.29 billion yuan, an increase of 690.6%.China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 51.9%, 56.3% and 55.3% respectively in March, up 1.3 percentage points, 4.9 percentage points and 3.7 percentage points over the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Data from the National Energy Administration showed that China's electricity consumption totaled 1,921.9 billion kilowatt-hours from January to March, up 21.2 percent year on year.On the other hand, prices remain stable.CPI rose 0.4% in March from 0.2% in the previous month as the carry-over effect weakened significantly.In the first quarter, the national CPI was flat from a year earlier.

Major international agencies have upgraded their forecasts for China's economy.On April 6, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report, predicting that the global economy will grow by 6% in 2021, up 0.5 percentage points from its forecast in January.China's economy is forecast to grow 8.4 percent in 2021, up 0.3 percentage points from the January forecast.China's economy is expected to grow by 8.1 percent in 2021, as the global economy gradually picks up, according to the World Bank's semi-annual report on East Asia and the Pacific.Fitch, the international credit rating agency, raised its GDP forecast for China this year to 8.4% from 8.0%, saying China is now the only major economy that has begun to normalize macroeconomic policy setting and is performing better than expected overall.However, it should be noted that the COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading around the world, the world economic situation is complex and grim, the imbalance in the domestic recovery process is still prominent, and the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid.So, in front of the beautiful numbers, also want to keep sober.A number of risks in the economic and financial sectors deserve attention, including the risk of short-term imported inflation, the risk of a rapid rise in the macro leverage ratio, the risk of continued exposure of credit risks, and the potential risk of green transformation under the carbon peak and carbon neutral target, the Bank of China Research Institute said in the report.

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